On the Verge of Something Special

Both Wales and Northern Ireland share something in common, they are plucky underdogs who have defied everything to reach Euro 2016. Now, as we reach the conclusion of the group stage, Wales are through to the knockout rounds in first position, while Northern Ireland are on the verge of qualifying as a third place team.

The winners of Group B have given themselves an excellent chance of going further in the tournament, as they face a third place side in the next round from either Group A, Group D or Group C. Albania finished third in Group A, while Northern Ireland are in pole position to qualify in third, providing they do not get hammered by the Germans later today. In Group D, Turkey have their work cut out, needing to beat the Czech Republic by more than 3 goals in order to finish third and have a competitive goal difference to challenge the rest of the sides. However, that would only leave them on 3 points and they would need other results to go in their favour. Likewise, the Czechs need to win to secure their qualification.

Looking beyond the next knockout round, a match against either the runner up of Group F or the winner of Group E. Belgium are likely to be the runner up of Group E providing they don't slip up against Sweden, Hungary are leading the way in Group E. While Group E is still up for grabs, none of the teams have looked convincing and all look very beatable. Wales don't fear anyone and that is the spirit that Chris Coleman and his predecessor, the late Gary Speed instilled in the side.

Looking at Wales, Chris Coleman has got them playing very smart football. Last night they destroyed a Russian side 3-0 with Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey and Neil Taylor on the score sheet. Joe Allen delivered a very assured performance in the middle of the park and executed a brilliant through ball to Ramsey for the opener. Bale was a thorn in the Russian side all night and is a very good attacking outlet for Wales to use. During qualifying, Wales were criticised for being a one-man team, in this tournament other players have stepped up and showed that Wales don't have to rely on Gareth Bale.

Northern Ireland don't have a speedy Real Madrid Galactico to look towards so some would argue that their feat would be even more spectacular. Sitting as the top third placed team before the final round of group matches kicked off, lists of permutations were drafted up of what had to happen for Northern Ireland to qualify. Four years ago I would have laughed at you if you had said Northern Ireland would qualify for Euro 2016 never mind be on the verge of making it to the knockout round.

Standing in front of the big screen at the Titanic Quarter in Belfast, soaking up the atmosphere before Northern Ireland kicked off against Ukraine on Thursday, I remember thinking to myself, 'Imagine if Northern Ireland scored?' Not only did they score 1, they won the match by two goals. Northern Ireland started that match with intent. The players weren't happy with the performance against Poland which culminated in a 1-0 loss and Michael O'Neill made 5 changes, notably, qualifying hero Kyle Lafferty being replaced by QPR's Conor Washington. Washington set the tempo early on, with high pressing, aided by Steven Davis and Stuart Dallas. 

Oliver Norwood, whose set piece deliveries are normally very accurate, but hasn't hit the levels Northern Irish fans have grown accustom to, delivered a perfect ball for Gareth McAuley to head home after the interval. A threat in the opposition's box, McAuley was also imperious when defending, constantly throwing his body in the way of any Ukrainian shot along with Jonny Evans. Niall McGinn followed up a shot from Steven Davis to score the second goal and send the Northern Irish contingent delirious and that goal might be crucial in determining whether they will progress.

Northern Ireland are currently on track to reach the first knockout round of their very first European Championship, but have the small task of current World Champions, Germany in their way. Any kind of result would virtually guarantee a place in the next round. With a +1 goal difference, a 3-0 defeat to Germany would still see them through providing the Czech Republic and Turkey draw tonight. Also, if Turkey beat the Czech Republic but fail to overturn a goal difference of -4, then Northern Ireland will qualify.

Michael O'Neill won't be concerning himself with the list of permutations about finishing third, instead a plan on how to add Germany to the long list of upsets that the nation of 1.7m people has caused. All the talk has been about what Northern Ireland have to do to qualify third, with no mention of what has to happen for them to finish top. If Northern Ireland defeat Germany and Ukraine defeat Poland, the Green and White Army top the group, and match their Celtic counterparts, Wales.

Northern Ireland is at fever pitch with First Minister Arlene Foster asking for employers to let their staff out early in order to watch the match. Across the Irish Sea, Wales will be waking up to plenty of sore heads after a hard night partying, but Chris Coleman will know that there is more history to be written. Both sides are on the verge of something special. 

Home Nations at Euro 2016

For the first time in European Championship history, three of the four teams defined as the Home Nations have made it to the Euros, with the addition of the Republic of Ireland. With many from the British Isles set to be glued to their TV over the next few weeks, how will we all get on?

Northern Ireland

Qualified as group winners, this will be Northern Ireland's first ever appearance at the Euros and first at a major competition since 1986. Their unbeaten result against Slovakia in the last warm up game sees Michael O'Neill's men come into the tournament on form, having not lost a match in 12, with no other side matching this feat. Placed in a group with Poland, Germany and Ukraine, the current holders of the now defunct British Home Championship, could have had an easier group but the quality will not phase the Ulstermen having beaten Russia and Greece as well as matching Portugal over the last few years, write off Northern Ireland at your peril.

Key Player

While Kyle Lafferty provided the main source of goals for Northern Ireland in qualifying, their talisman is without a doubt Southampton's Steven Davis. A Northern Irish stalwart over the years it was fitting that he was to score two of the goals to send his team to the competition. The captain featured in all qualifying games bar the 2-0 defeat to Romania in Bucharest. All of Northern Ireland's attacking threat comes through the County Antrim man and Davis will have to replicate the same form he has showed over the past year if Northern Ireland have any ambitions of getting out of the group.

Predicted Finish

With only 8 teams going out at the group stage, four points could be enough to send Northern Ireland through to the knock-out games. They will fancy themselves against Ukraine and will aim to soak up pressure from the Germans and Polish attacks before hitting them on the break. I fancy Northern Ireland to get out of the group. If they finish second, it gives them a tie against Romania, a perfect opportunity to carry out some revenge however this is unlikely. I predict Northern Ireland to scrape through in third spot and, depending on the draw, to exit at the first knock-out round.

England

The only side in the tournament to qualify with 10 wins, England have been placed in a group with Wales as well as Russia and Slovakia. England will be expected to top the group and in doing so, would open up many possibilities with having to face a third place side in the first knock-out round. As always with the English side there has been debates about the personnel chosen to represent England with Premier League winner, Danny Drinkwater being omitted from the 23-man squad in favour of Jack Wilshere. England massively underperformed at the last World Cup so will be hoping to make amends in Euro 2016.

Key Player

Unlike with the other nations, it was difficult to single out a key player in the English ranks. Record goal scorer, Wayne Rooney, topped the scoring charts in qualifying with 7, and has competition from Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy who netted 25 and 24 Premier League goals this season respectively. As captain it is unlikely that Rooney will be benched so it will be critical where he is played. Rumours have been circulating that Roy Hodgson will opt for a 4-4-2 diamond, incorporating Kane and Vardy up front with Rooney in behind, while dropping Rooney into midfield has also been discussed. Rooney has been criticised in the past for poor performances at major competitions so he will be aiming to prove the doubters wrong.

Predicted Finish
Expectations in the build-up to the tournament have been surprisingly low from English fans and can probably be attributed to the failings in 2014. England are likely to do better than Wales, Northern Ireland or Republic of Ireland, but a lot will hinge on the the decisions made by Roy Hodgson. For Hodgson, he will have to make bold decisions and will likely come under fierce criticism from the English media if they are unsuccessful. I do expect England to top their group and they will be confident of defeating their opponents in the first knockout round providing there are no shocks. While England are a good side, they are not suitable contenders yet and an exit at the quarter finals looks likely.

Wales

Having successfully qualified for their first major tournament since the 1958 World Cup, Wales will be relishing the prospect of taking on their old foes in the shape of England. They had an excellent qualifying campaign in a tricky group which included a very good win over Belgium at home and a draw away. Their only blemish was a 2-0 defeat at Bosnia and Herzegovina in the penultimate game. Despite being the first manager since Jimmy Murphy to guide his country to a major tournament, Coleman holds the unwanted record of being the first Welsh manager to lose in his first five games. Like Northern Ireland, the Welsh faithful will be happy to be at competition however the players will harbour ambitions of leaving their mark on the tournament.

Key Player

Real Madrid Galactico Gareth Bale fired his country to the Euros with 7 goals in qualifying and undoubtedly holds the key to their success in the competition. With 19 international goals at the age of 26, it looks almost certain that Bale will surpass the Welsh record currently held by Ian Rush (28). Not only does Bale have excellent dribbling and lightning pace, he is also renowned as one of the best players in the world and this will also attract the attention of opposition managers, who will attempt to mark him out of the game therefore leaving space for some of his team mates. If Bale is on form, then Wales have every chance of getting out of the group.

Predicted Finish

Coleman does have some cause for concern after a heavy 3-0 defeat at the hands of Sweden in their last warm up match. While they will want to win all of their matches, the English tie will be the one that will attract the most attention. They kick off their campaign against Slovakia on Saturday, before the crunch match against England on June 16th and the final game against Russia on June 20th. If Wales can clinch that second spot, they will face a knock-out round tie against the runners up of Group F, consisting of Portugal, Iceland, Austria and Hungary, all who are very beatable. I predict an exit in the first knock-out round for Wales.

Republic of Ireland

The Republic of Ireland had the toughest qualifying group out of all of the mentioned teams, but one they were able to navigate. The biggest highlight was undoubtedly the 1-0 win over Germany with Shane Long grabbing the only goal. Martin O'Neill and his men finished in the play off spot just ahead of Scotland and were able to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina 3-1 on aggregate in the play off. They qualified for Euro 2012, but finished bottom of their group with 0 points and only one goal scored so an improvement this year will definitely be on the cards.

Key Player

Veteran Robbie Keane continues to thrill the Irish faithful at the ripe age of 35. Ireland's top scorer with 5 goals in qualifying, Keane leads the side from the front and continues to display all the characteristics which cemented him as an Irish legend. However it was his partner in crime who netted the pivotal goal to defeat Germany in qualifying. Currently at Southampton, Shane Long is coming to the Euros off the back of a decent season on the south coast of England, scoring 13 goals in 32 appearances in all competitions. Possessing good pace, his threat will be apparent on the counter attack and will test the defences of Belgium, Italy and Sweden.

Predicted Finish

A defence that is error prone could hinder the Irish side, however they possess a great work ethic in midfield and up front. The first match against Sweden is vital and a win next Monday will give the side a great confidence boost. Looking at their opposition, a lot has been expected of Belgium yet they have not hit top form over the past few matches, while Italy are currently in transition with coach Antonio Conte admitting that he is worried about preparations for the tournament. A win against Sweden and I tip the Republic of Ireland to qualify, anything else and they'll have their work cut out.