Can the Black Cats Defy the Odds?

Sunday will witness the first piece of silverware up for grabs this calendar year. The Capital One Cup does not rate highly amongst most Premier League managers, or me, however the competing teams are situated in the top tier of English football.

The Capital One Cup will provide an escape for the Wearside club from the tense, energy-sapping relegation battle. Battling for their lives, a win in the Capital One Cup will bring a bit of elation to a very frustrating season for the Sunderland fans.

Route to the Final

A 2-0 victory over Peterborough kicked off the tournament, but harder tests were to come. The 1st of 4 Premier League battles commenced in the 4th round. Southampton lay await, but an 86th minute winner from Seb Larsson sent the Saints packing with their tails between their legs. Mourinho's Chelsea were the next opponents. A late 88th minute equaliser from Liverpool loanee Fabio Borini, secured extra time, before Ki popped up to provide the winner and evade the tense penalty shootout. The semi final saw The Black Cats heap more misery upon David Moyes and it took a penalty shootout to secure a trip to Wembley. The quarter, semi and possibly even the match against Southampton, will give Sunderland the confidence that they can compete with the 'giants'.

On paper, this seems a very one sided affair, but not many matches are won on paper. Sunderland are battling for their lives at the foot of the table while Manchester City are flying high in third place, challenging for the title with a game in hand on the others. I am under no doubt that the FA. Cup Final of last year will be in the back of the City minds and they will be out to rectify this, even if the Cup is not a main priority. As for Sunderland, they have never won the competition, but did reach the final in 1985. 

Can they Stun the Blue Side of Manchester?

Honestly, I think they have a chance. The motto of 'anything can happen in the cup' or 'form goes out the window' ring loud in my ears, particularly after the escapades of Bradford in the trophy last year.  However, the thought of a domestic treble for City - and possibly even a Champions League - will encourage them to try and win this trophy. In my opinion, it will not be a one sided affair, Sunderland will have more chances than most people think, but whether they convert them will be the difference between lifting the trophy and going home empty handed. In order to seize the victory, Gus Poyet will need to be tactically astute as well as disciplined. Sitting back and absorbing pressure will not work due to the attacking prowess of the Citizens. If the Black Cats have this as their gameplan, then the potent striking threat of City will eventually unlock their defence. An early goal would be ideal as it would rattle City and a high pressure game will put them on the back foot.

On the outside, both teams will pretend not to care about the competition, but deep down, they will be itching for that elusive victory and the trophy to add to the cabinet. This will make it twice as hard for a plucky Sunderland side, who will have to bring their A-game. If Sunderland do defy the odds, the triumph will give them much needed confidence and will bode well as we approach the climax of what has been an action-packed campaign.

All we can do now, is sit back, relax and watch another frantic Wembley episode unfold.

Euro 2016 Qualifying Draw

It seems like yesterday that we were congratulating Spain on their 2nd consecutive Euro Championship victory. Now that the World Cup is just around the corner, the qualifying groups for Euro 2016, could add more misery upon English fans or else deliver some over due luck to the rest of the Home Nations.

The Home Nations have not all qualified for major tournament since the 1958 World Cup, which is Wales' only appearance in a high profile competition to date. The new structure of the tournament will provide renewed hope for minnows such as Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The tournament has been revamped, allowing 24 teams, instead of the usual 16 to compete in the finals. The top 2 nations from each pool will qualify automatically along with the best third placed team. The 8 remaining third placed sides enter a 2 legged affair in order to decide the last 4 spots in France 2016. Among the home nations, this will give Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland confidence that they can scrape through.

Here, I will assess the chances of each of the Home nations qualifying for France 2016:

Group B: Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Israel, Wales, Cyprus, Andorra

We all predict the Belgians to run riot in this group and qualify with ease, however, second place is slightly more difficult. Bosnia or Israel are more likely, however, Wales and Gareth Bale must be fancying their chances here. Cyprus and Andorra are easy 6 pointers for the Welsh. On the other hand, a point against Belgium would feel like a moral victory. Israel could prove a stumbling block, but they would be looking for at least 3 points from that tie. Wales against Bosnia will see Gareth Bale face Edin Dzeko. Bosnia have a few players that could cause Wales several problems, including Dzeko, Asmir Begovic and Miralem Pjanic. In my opinion, this group presents Wales' best opportunity to qualify for a major international tournament for the first time since 1958.

Group D: Germany, Republic of Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Georgia, Gibraltar

Group D, or Group of Death, as most Scots and Irish would refer to it as. Germany will be too strong for Ireland and Scotland while Poland will test them. Buoyed on by competing in 2012, Ireland will believe that they can upset Poland in order to pinch that 2nd place. Unfortunately, I do not see this happening. Poland are a classy outfit with quality players in Lewandowski and Obraniak and Piszczek and will be able to neutralise the challenge of the Irish. The games against Georgia and newly qualified Gibraltar, should be relatively straightforward for both the Scots and the Irish. As for Scotland, they should be aiming to pip the Republic to 3rd place. In spite of this, 4th is my prediction for Scotland, narrowly missing on that play-off position.

Group E: England, Switzerland, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, San Marino

Yet again England receive a relatively easy group. Whether they can remove the complacency commonly associated with them is another thing. In my opinion, England should be aiming for an unbeaten campaign. The Swiss are the only likely team to trouble the English and Roy Hodgson can use this group as an excellent opportunity to blood some young players such as Wilfried Zaha, Raheem Sterling and Ross Barkley. With the right coaching, the future of the English team is looking bright for the foreseeable future. As for the rest of the qualifying places, I expect Switzerland to claim the second spot with Slovenia just behind in third.

Group F: Greece, Hungary, Romania, Finland, Northern Ireland, Faroe Islands

Born and bred in the greatest little country that the world has ever seen, I'm am a bit less pessimistic than I was last year. The lowest seeds of the home nations, Michael O'Neill's men will be looking to sneak a third spot in order to erase memories of a dismal World Cup qualifying campaign. While there are no 'giants' in Group F for Steven Davis and co to slay, a good tournament performance and the glory days of '82 and '86 may be revisited. 'Norn Iron' will be looking to end a dismal Euro performance in recent years and hope to qualify for their first ever Euro competition in 2016, yet it will be tough. Particularly the away games, most notably to Greece. The games against the Faroe Islands, will be targeted as 2 must win games. Belief in their national team is something that 'Our Wee Country' does not lack, however the form needs improving.

The draw has shifted the focus from the highly anticipated World Cup albeit for today, but the new format and the groups will give the smaller teams confidence in their ability to qualify for France 2016. Whether we can get all the home nations on the plane to France is unlikely, but not impossible.

Full draw:

Group A - Holland, Czech Republic, Turkey, Latvia, Iceland, Kazakhstan

Group B - Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belgium, Israel, Wales, Cyprus, Andorra

Group C - Spain, Ukraine, Slovakia, Belarus, Macedonia, Luxembourg

Group D - Germany, Republic of Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Georgia, Gibraltar

Group E - England, Switzerland, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, San Marino

Group F - Greece, Hungary, Romania, Finland, Northern Ireland, Faroe Islands

Group G - Russia, Sweden, Austria, Montenegro, Moldova, Liechtenstein

Group H - Italy, Croatia, Norway, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, Malta

Group I - Portugal, Denmark, Serbia, Armenia, Albania, France*

*France qualify as hosts, but will play friendlies against teams in Group I. There will be no points awarded for games in which France figure, so these will have no affect on the Group I table.

Qualifiers to be played between September 7, 2014 and October 13, 2015. Play-off matches to be played in November 2015.

My Prediction:

England - 1st

Scotland - 4th

Wales - 3rd (defeat in play offs)

Northern Ireland - 3rd (qualify) (Because I'm an optimist!)

Republic of Ireland - 3rd (qualify)

Preventing a Goal Scoring Chance - Red Card or Not?

After a very long lay off, our beloved Champions League is back with a bang. The last 16 has thrown up some highly anticipated matches with a couple of very controversial issues. 

On Tuesday night, Manchester City's Martin Demichelis was sent for an early shower after denying Lionel Messi a goal scoring opportunity. This was replicated last night by Wojciech Sczezesny of Arsenal, when he fouled Arjen Robben.

I was watching the coverage on RTE Sport and the panel were all very critical of the current ruling. The current rules state that the perpetrator must be sent off and either a penalty or a free kick awarded. It was evident that Sczezesny disagreed with the decision, and at first I did too. On the first appearance, it seemed as if Robben had lost control of the ball and, if Sczezesny had not touched him, it would have rolled harmlessly out of play for a goal kick. On the other hand, the decision against Demichelis was justified.

"The red card changed the complexion of the game."

I am highly critical of some of the laws in the the rule book and an advocate for referees to use their initiative instead of going by the letter of the law. Personally, the red card heaps more misery upon the team, particularly if the penalty is scored. As witnessed last night, the red card changed the complexion of the game. For the dying minutes of the first half and the majority of the second half, Arsenal were devoted to protecting their own goal, rather than trying to attack in order to score. Effectively it ruined the game as a contest for the neutral - Arsenal could only manage 12% possession and complete 38 passes in the second half. Not what we want to see in the Champions League. Fortunately for Arsenal, David Alaba hit the post with the penalty and the teams went in level at half time. 

"The referee refused to use his initiative and followed the letter of the law."

Another high profile example was the sending off of Jens Lehmann in the 2006 Champions League Final (sorry Arsenal fans!). The match yesterday was a replica of that Final.  Back in '06, Samuel Eto'o was brought down by the German keeper in a challenge which was a stonewall foul. Whether it was inside or outside the box, that's open to interpretation. While the rule book states that the penalty must be awarded and the red card shown, the ball had rolled on to Ronaldinho who nestled the ball in the back of the net. In this case, the referee refused to use his initiative and followed the letter of the law. The neutral, (and Arsenal fans), would have much rather seen the goal awarded and Lehmann booked. At least that way, the game would still have 22 players on the pitch.

Unlike Bayern, Barcelona were able to convert the penalty through Lionel Messi. With both a man and a goal down, the Manchester side had a colossal mountain to climb. The dismissal of Demichelis ignited a flurry of attacks from Barcelona as they continued to probe the City defence for any signs of weakness. While Arsenal could barely get a touch of the ball, City were able to muster a few shots target.

"A red card is brandished if the penalty is missed, and a the yellow produced if it is scored."

Many FIFA critics would argue that by awarding a penalty, it replicates the goal scoring chance that was taken away from the attacking side, therefore the red card would not be necessary. I agree with this opinion completely, as the red card handicaps the side for the rest of the game. John Giles of RTE Sport agrees with them. In the heat of the debate, Giles proposed a solution to this contentious issue. He suggested that the red card is shown if the penalty is missed and the yellow is shown if the penalty is scored.

It is a logical solution to this ongoing debacle, however their is one glaringly obvious problem with this answer - Would some players, under orders from the manager, purposely miss the penalty in order to see the red card waved? This scenario is particularly true if, the 'victims' were overwhelming the opposing team to the point where a goal is inevitable, regardless of the colour of card produced. I could bet by life savings that we would observe this happening. 

"I don't agree with the introduction of the sin-bin system, but, if drastic action is required, then I view this as the only plausible answer."

Personally, my solution, if one was required, would be to introduce a timeout where the offender would be off the pitch for around 12 minutes. Similar to the sin bin system used in Rugby Union, the attacking team would have the penalty and the player of the pitch, while the defending team, would not have to spend the rest of the game a man down. It benefits both teams, and also the spectators as the spectacle would not be ruined. However, the die-hards would not be pleased about the similarities between rugby and football. As stated in previous posts, I don't agree with the introduction of the sin-bin system, but, if drastic action is required, then I view this as the only plausible answer.

While, this issue seems to be a growing concern, I do not see, or expect, this issue to be challenged in the coming future. Whatever the rules of football, UEFA and FIFA are not able to keep all sides happy. It is undoubtedly a sticky issue that may feel, some sides feel agrieved, particularly if the red card and penalty were unwarranted for a dive.

Diving

Simulation. Something that every football fan should love to hate. Diving or 'play acting' has marked our beautiful game for years, with little or no punishment for the perpetrators.

The FA state that referees should issue a yellow card to those who dive. However, I do not believe that this goes far enough. If the FA are serious about stamping out diving then a yellow card obviously does not deter the players from doing it as it has been ever-present throughout this year's campaign. In rugby, players can be 'cited' through a commission to deem whether the punishment (or lack of...) that the referee has given has gone far enough.

"It shows the world of football in a negative light"

This act has seen games been ruined in the past. Earlier in the season, Chelsea's Ramires appeared to dive for a penalty, going down from little or no contact from Stephen Reid against West Brom. As well as giving the player a bad reputation, it shows the world of football in a negative light and often leads to the common stereotypes such as "they're all fairies." Last season, Gareth Bale developed a bit of a reputation  for diving, especially last season, when he was the only player to pick up two cautions for the act. Statistically,  Liverpool were the worst offenders for diving, collecting four yellows (both statistics courtesy of The Telegraph). But of course, these are only statistics on players caught.

Ashley Young drew a 'stern word' with Sir Alex Ferguson last season after his reoffending and horrendous lunge to the ground against Aston Villa. At the start of the season it was evident that things didn't changed after recieved another 'wee chat' with David Moyes in September after a controversial sending off of Kagisho Dikagchoi. Many decisions are open to interpretation, so I'll leave you to decide whether the penalty against Real Sociedad was deserved or not. While his recent performances have been better, it will something special to erase the name of 'diver' or stop the petty diving jokes for Young.

"The simulation may ingrain itself in the grassroots of football and will indoctrinate the future players of the game."

Ashley Young is not the only culprit this season. Adan Januzaj, Ramires and Santi Cazorla have all been caught, or given controversial decision. On a wider scale, Sergio Busquets is renowned for hitting the deck like he has been shot, along with teammate Neymar, who went over exuberantly against Celtic in the Champions League this year. With all these players being viewed on live television going over softly or else exaggerating the challenge, it will also have an impact on the viewers. The simulation may ingrain itself in the grassroots of football and will indoctrinate the future players of the game.

"Deterrence is the best form of punishment."

I am a strong believer that deterrence is the best form of punishment. Harsher punishments will see less and less players do it, leading to less games ruined by apocryphal decisions. Although used in rugby, a citing commission would prove useful as players could be reprimanded after the game even if the referee doesn't see through the acting. 

Personally, I feel that a panel consisting of 7 or 8 neutral officials is set up to debate situations like this after the game. Working on a majoritarian system, the number of votes that excedes the half way mark, dictates the number of matches the player in question is banned.

In short, I say save it for the Olympics.

Can Fulham Survive the Drop?

Fulham are a team that has had their luck change in matter of years. Currently in their 13th consecutive year in the Barclays Premier League, the Hammersmith side have gone from competing in the Europa League Final in 2010, to fighting for survival in the Premier League.

The 12th May 2010 saw arguably Fulham's finest hour in when an extra time finish from Atletico Madrid striker Diego Forlan dashed the Lilywhites hopes at achieving European glory. It is safe to say that since then, the wheels have come off the Fulham wagon. As it stands, Fulham are propping up the bottom of the table with 20 points, 4 off safety.

January proved to be a productive month off the pitch. On the pitch, however, they only recorded 2 victories in 7 matches. Not the form needed if they aspiring to remain in the Premier League. Fulham manager, Rene Meulensteen was a busy man during the January transfer window. Konstatinos Mitroglou grabbed the Fulham headlines with his big money move from Olympiakos in Greece for a fee around £12m. 

The phrase "panic-buy" immediately rings around especially with the history of the January deadline day disasters. Yes, I hear you yelling "Fernando Torres" sitting at home, however, people are astonishly quick to forget about a certain Uruguayan named Luis Alberto Suarez. The rest is history. I'm not saying that Mitroglou will be as successful as Suarez, I'm saying that not all deadline day signings are flops.

In terms of their other signings, Lewis Holtby has the ability in his young legs to revive their season. The German never made the break through at Tottenham under Tim Sherwood, so agreed a loan deal to West London. Johnny Heitinga was also signed to replace Aaron Hughes who was loaned out to QPR and Clint Dempsey has an authentic track record in the Premier League, particularly with Spurs.

Having squeezed a valuable point out of a lackadaisical Manchester United side, they will take this new found confidence into a difficult match as they welcome Liverpool to Craven Cottage tomorrow. While I don't think they will claim any points from the match, another good performance from the Londoners, mixed with some favourable results, may give them the belief to move from the bottom of the table. As we get into the 'business' end of the season, Fulham versus West Brom will be a vital 6 pointer. While it will be played at The Hawthorns, I expect Fulham to have a solid back four, much like they had against Manchester United and a solitary goal will seal the 3 points for the Cottagers.

However, Fulham have been extremely poor this season and this was summed up with their FA Cup exit to Sheffield Wednesday. Their 6-0 capitulation against Hull was possibly the lowest point. What makes it even worse, Hull are in the thick of the relegation battle, and whether that match will prove crucial come the end of May is another question. Possibly playing in the favour of the Lilywhites is that 5 out of their last 6 games are winnable matches against clubs that could potentially be in the relegation mix towards the conclusion of the season.

Overall, Fulham the glory days of the Roy Hodgson era are long gone and they have a huge, but not impossible task of escaping the bottom 3 places. Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City await in the coming weeks mixed with a vital away game against Cardiff which could make or break the Cottagers season. 

At the start of the season I predicted Fulham to struggle, and they are. However I believed, and still do, that they have enough quality to overcome the relegation dog fight.

Match-fixing

Over the past few months, an old foe has returned to blemish our footballing game. We had thought that match-fixing was a thing of the past, but the events over the Christmas period meant that it has returned.

It used to play a major role in Italian football which saw Juventus stripped of their 04/05 and 05/06 titles and demoted to Serie B with a 30 point deduction in 2006. They were not the only team involved as sanctions were dished out to Milan, Fiorentina, Lazio and Reggina. Milan remained in the Serie A for the following season but albeit at the expense of 15 points. Lazio suffered a seven penalty while Fiorentina were docked twelve points for the following season, both were relegated to Serie B.

In the middle of December, Cremona prosecutor Roberto Di Martino confirmed that former Italian, Rangers and Milan hatchet man Gennaro Gattuso has allegedly been involved a syndicate that fixed matches in Serie A at the end of the 2010/2011 season. The Italian was renowned for his fierce tackling and hard work which earned him the nickname of Ringhio (growl). He has recently pleaded his innocence by contemplating suicide if found guilty

Much closer to home, 6 footballers have been arrested on suggestion of match-fixing. As of the 16th December, the Daily Mail reported that Oldham Athletic player Cristian Montano had been sacked. He is one of the six players arrested and bailed by the National Crime Agency in an operation looking to stamp out match-fixing in football. 

The Sun newspaper did an investigation into ex-pompey and Nigerian international Sam Sodje. A video shows Sodje claiming to be able to fix Championship matches and also Montano explaining how 'he struggled to get a booking in a League One match against Wolves in October.' A separate video shows the Nigerian divulge details on how he punched Portsmouth's Lee Bernard down below in an attempt to get sent off in order to collect a £70,000 payout.

I'm glad to see that UEFA are creating measures to combat match-fixing through the introduction of their 11-point plan which is designed to engage match-fixing. As reported by BBC Sport, it will be distributed to all 54 European football associations. Further afield, the Malaysian FA imposed a lifetime ban on five players and three team officials. As well as the ban, they were slapped a RM20,000 fine which is equivalent to just over 3,700 British pounds.

Today, illegal betting syndicates are worth an estimated £320 billion - fuelled by ‘in-game’ betting and prove to make clients extremely rich. We thought we had seen the back of match-fixing after the severe penalties dealt out for the 2006 scandal but recent events have shown us that this is not the case. I say, leave it for the cricket.

Are Arsenal Title Contenders?

This season has shocked many people for a considerable number of reasons, most notably, the ascent of Arsenal to the top of the table. On deadline day of the summer, Arsene Wenger smashed the piggy bank for £42.5m in order to bring Real Madrid playmaker, Mesut Ozil to North London for a club record fee.

The tricky German has galvanised the club 

I am amazed how one moment of absolute wizardry from Arsene Wenger could propel his club into a title winning position. For those who say that one player cannot win you trophies, Arsenal is a prime example on how that theory could be proved wrong. The tricky German has galvanised the club and also brought a degree of securance to Arsene Wenger's job at the Emirates. Having endured almost 9 years without a trophy, this season marks their best opportunity to date to win a major trophy.

Traditionally, this month is like Friday the 13th to Arsenal fans

However, it's the month of February. Traditionally, this month is like Friday the 13th to Arsenal fans. Last February saw Arsenal defeated in the FA Cup to Blackburn Rovers and effectively knocked out of the Champions League by the eventual winners, Bayern Munich. In previous years, Arsenal have suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat to AC Milan and the memorable 4-4 draw at Newcastle. This is emphasised by dropping 21 points and officially being knocked out of 2 competitions in the last three years.

While February is usually an appalling month for Arsenal, the fixture list doesn't prove pleasant reading for the Gooners. They have made a flying start to their bogey month with already 3 points under their belt in a win against Crystal Palace. The task gets a bit harder on Saturday in a top 4 clash with Liverpool. Realistically, with the game at Anfield, it will be difficult for the North Londoners and a draw would be a pleasing result. A game then follows against the under achieving Manchester United. Having lost in the reverse fixture, Arsene has a score to settle, and a win for the Gunners seems most likely. Another home fixture against Liverpool in the FA Cup gives Arsenal the opportunity to progress in the cup - a 2nd leg victory for Arsenal would be my prediction. Then comes the big test against all-conquering Bayern Munich before a game against the struggling, Sunderland and will pick up 3 points from the latter.

They don't have a big enough squad to compete in all fronts

As for my original question, I don't feel they are title contenders, yet. In my opinion, they don't have a big enough squad to compete in all fronts. Wenger has a solid defence at his disposal in Szczesny, Koscielny, Mertesacker and Gibbs, however, a replacement for the ageing Bacary Sagna may be required. As for midfield, they have a multitude of talent, probably the best after Manchester City and Chelsea. While the signing of Kim Kallstrom is logical, an attacker to deputise for Giroud if he gets injured is needed. I share the same opinion with most people in believing that Bendtner isn't good enough for this Arsenal team and that Podolski is more of a wide player rather than an out-and-out striker.

The stats don't lie. February has traditionally been a month with no luck for the London based team. However, if the Gunners come out of it with a victory against Bayern, a double over Liverpool and free from any injuries, it could set them up for an interesting finish in the the title race. After all, every title winning team needs a bit of luck.