Assessing the Favourites

It's hard to believe that we're less than a month until the tournament commences and with provisional squads beginning to be announced everyone is switching their mindset from the domestic season to what promises to be a special tournament. Having shared my opinions on some of the sides that have the ability to cause a shock on the scale of Greece '04, here are my thoughts on who is likely to lift the the Henri Delaunay Trophy on the 10th July.

France

It would be rude to not start with the hosts, who remain very strong despite the exclusion of Karim Benzema. Antoine Griezmann has been red hot for Atletico Madrid, similarly, Anthony Martial has had a sterling first season in Manchester. With a squad containing key players such as Raphael Varane, Martial, Kingsley Coman and Paul Pogba who are all under the age of 24, the core of this team will be around for the next World Cup and mixed with the experienced heads such as Hugo Lloris, Patrice Evra, Blaise Matuidi, Yohan Cabaye and Dimitri Payet. Home advantage will certainly play a part in their campaign, with France in a frenzy in the lead up to the start of the tournament. With a group consisting of Romania, Albania and Switzerland it paves the way for strong run in the tournament and don't be put it past them if they lift the trophy on home soil.

Germany

The reigning World Champions will be deserved favourites after such a scintillating show two years ago in Brazil. Despite retirements to Phillip Lahm, Mirosav Klose and Per Mertesacker and questions over the form at the start of the qualifying campaign, the Germans have a plethora of young talent coming through. Bastian Schweinsteiger steps up to replace Phillip Lahm as captain despite an injury plagued season at Old Trafford. Joachim Low has midfield options that would have any other manager dripping with envy, and will surely place a lot of emphasis on this part of the pitch. A lot rests on the shoulders of Mario Gomez, the only typical number nine striker selected, with Low perhaps opting to emulate Spain's success in 2012 with a striker-less formation as a plan 'B' option. They have a very good manager at the helm and they will be disappointed if they don't reach the finals.

Spain

After a shambolic showing in the last World Cup, Spain need a good run in this competition to prove the doubters wrong and defend their crown. Already Vicente del Bosque has omitted some notable luminaries including Fernando Torres, Diego Costa and Juan Mata, all of which would get into most of the other national squads. Similar to Germany, Spain have loads of midfield options with Koke and Saul Niguez in particular having very good seasons. Aritz Aduriz of Bilbao may be 35 years old, but he still knows where the goal is - 36 goals in all competitions this season for the Basque side - and correctly gets ahead of Costa on current form. With Czech Republic, Turkey and Croatia completing Group D, Spain will need to be focus or else face a tricky tie against Belgium or Italy in the Round of 16. Particularly after the early exit in the World Cup, Spain have a point to prove and certainly have the players to do so.

Belgium

Having been labelled as dark horses at the last World Cup, many pundits were slightly underwhelmed with their performance after losing in the quarter finals to eventual finalists, Argentina. I believe they gave as good as they got but that experience, in what was the first their first appearance at a tournament since 2002, will serve them well going into Euro 2016. Kevin de Bruyne has been in fine form this season for Manchester City, similarly Spurs pair Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld have been stalwarts for their club and helped guide them to a third placed finish in the league and conceded the least amount of goals along with Manchester United. Despite a relatively young squad, only 3 players over the age of 30, they do not lack experience. One notable absentee is Vincent Kompany whose groin injury in the Champions League tie against Real Madrid has ruled him out of the tournament. Even though the Belgians appear the weakest out of the sides mentioned, their attacking prowess and defensive solidity will give them confidence and they will fancy themselves against Europe's elite.

Italy
The Italians always seem to show up for the international competitions. In qualifying, they posted a decent record, winning seven games and drawing three pipping Croatia to the top spot in Group H. Both Italy and Belgium have a difficult group with consisting of Sweden and the Republic of Ireland who will be no pushovers and have the ability to spring a shock. Defensively Italy have been very solid over the years with Leonardo Bonucci continuing his international career at centre back. Stephan El Shaarawy has had such a promising career stunted by injuries, but at only 23, he still has the time to assert himself in the main side. Antonio Conte has called up Lorenzo Insigne and Jorginho off the back of very good domestic campaigns with Napoli. Not many people will bet on Italy doing much in this tournament, particularly with their talisman Marco Verratti injured, but with the know-how and the professionalism that we associate with the Italians, don't bet against them causing a few upsets.

Which of these sides will be lifting the trophy on the 10th July, or will it be someone entirely different? Feel free to leave your opinions as to who you think will win.

Euro 2016 - The Groups

The draw for the Euro 2016 group phase was made last Saturday with 4 home nations competing, the most ever in a single European Championship.

Group B - England, Russia, Slovakia, Wales

I don't see there being too many problems for England, with their stiffest arguably being neighbours Wales. England should almost definitely be topping the group with ease and have the potential to win all three games. As for Wales, they have nothing to fear either. Wales need Gareth Bale fit to progress in my opinion. With the way his life has been going at Real Madrid, jetting off to France with the national side will be something of a relief. Slovakia finished second in their qualifying group with 22 points, 5 behind holders, Spain. Slovakia did record a famous 2-1 victory over the holders in October 2014 when a winner three minutes to go from Bursaspor striker Miroslav Stoch secured the victory after Paco Alcacer equalised a Juraj Kucka goal on 82 minutes.

Final standings in this order are England, Wales, Slovakia, Russia.

Group C - Germany, Northern Ireland, Poland, Ukraine

After qualifying for their first Euro campaign, there will be a buzz in the Northern Ireland camp as they are named in a group with the World Champions. It is going to be very tough for Northern Ireland and I don't expect them to qualify. Northern Ireland will be just happy to be at the tournament and no doubt the fans will also. Northern Ireland will probably line up defensively and look to hit teams on the break. I see the Germans and Poland being too strong for the nation of 1.7m, while Ukraine would represent their best opportunity of picking up some points. While Northern Ireland may finish bottom of their group, I do think they will pick up a point against Ukraine.

Final standings in this order are: Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Northern Ireland.

Group E - Belgium, Italy, Ireland, Sweden

Like their neighbours, the Republic of Ireland having been handed a very tough group. Belgium are widely tipped by many to be one of the tournament favourites next summer, while Italy normally up their game for the tournaments despite not being a great Italian team compared to those over the years. Sweden heavily rely on captain and PSG striker, Zlatan Ibrahimovic. If Ireland are able to mark him out of the game then I expect the side to record a victory.

Final standings in this order are: Belgium, Italy, Ireland, Sweden.

 

Group A - Albania, France, Romania, Switzerland

Looking at the other groups, France have a great opportunity to claim a pole position after being handed a group with Albania, Romania and Switzerland. When Albania last met France in June a free kick form Ergys Kace gave the Eastern European side their first victory over the French in their history. I don't see any of the others offering any competition to prevent France from finishing first in their group.

Final standings in this order are France, Switzerland, Albania and Romania.

 

Group D - Croatia, Czech Republic, Spain, Turkey

I think Group D is a very interesting affair. Czech Republic toppled Group A - and the Dutch - to secure their 9th outing in the competition. Looking at Croatia, they finished second in Group H behind Italy and possess some very good players. Ivan Rakitic is a very good box to box midfielder and will offer both an attacking threat and security for the defence. Similarly Mario Mandzukic, Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Ivan Perisic are key individuals and all pose a threat going forwards. We all know the pedigree of Spain and they will be looking to correct a few wrongs after a poor performance in the World Cup. Finally, Turkey always have the potential to shake things up with Arda Turan, Hakan Calhanoglu and Burak Yilmaz.

Final standings in this order are: Spain, Croatia, Turkey, Czech Republic.

Group F - Austria, Hungary, Iceland, Portugal

Many have tipped Austria to be this year's dark horse and I can understand why. David Alaba and Marko Arnautovic are probably their stand out players and will attract the most attention of their opposing sides. Alexander Dragovic is a decent young defender as is Martin Hinteregger and this is coupled with the experience of Leicester City defender, Christian Fuchs. Iceland have qualified for their first ever tournament and included home and away wins over the Netherlands in qualifying. Hungary scraped through finishing 3rd in qualifying group F and beating Norway 3-1 on aggregate in the playoffs. As for Portugal, they rely heavily on Cristiano Ronaldo and this could be their downfall later in the tournament but I see them qualifying from this group.

Final standings in this order: Austria, Portugal, Iceland, Hungary.

Feel free to leave your thoughts on the Home Nations' prospects or any other team for that matter.

Adios España and England v Uruguay

Not many people could have foreseen that World Cup holders and two time Euro winners Spain would be crashing out after only two matches. The Spanish media have already began their inquests into the error-strew and dismal display from the players, many of whom were the cornerstone to the victories in 2010 and 2010.

 

Having kicked off the tournament with a battering from the Dutch, a victory against Chile was paramount, but this was not the case. Instead, they slumped to another poor performance in which lack of movement and no plan 'B' culminated in a 2-0 loss. The problem arose through too many mistakes in key positions for Spain. Normally reliable, Xabi Alonso, was at fault for the first goal, where a bad pass allowed Alexis Sanchez to capitalise on the lapse of concentration from the former Liverpool man in order to square the ball for Eduardo Vargas. His Real Madrid team mate, Iker Casillas also had a night to forget when he flapped at a Sanchez free kick and the ball went straight into the path of Charles Aranguiz, who buried it with a toe poke into the back of the net.

 

Diego Costa also failed to perform in his short tournament amid the jeers of the on-looking Brazilian crowd. Having failed to find the net as of yet, Jose Mourinho and Roman Abramovich will be hoping that this is not a sign of things to come at Chelsea next year. It may be put down to the injury that he received in the latter stages of the Liga BBVA that also hampered his Champions League Final when he limped off after only eight minutes. He didn't look match sharp against the Netherlands or Chile but the match against Australia could see him click, but it will be too little too late for the adopted Spaniard.

 

The failures of this tournament may not spell the end for Tiki-Taka, but the end for ferocious Xavi-Iniesta partnership as well as captain, Iker Casillas and numerous other star components of the winners from 2008, 2010 and 2012.With Xavi aged 34, it is nearly 100% certain that he will not feature at another international tournament in a Spanish jersey. Del Bosque benched him for the first time in a major tournament, a testament to the changes that were required following the drubbing by the Netherlands. Iniesta wasn't nearly as effective as he was in South Africa, neither was Torres or Xabi Alonso. As a football fan, it is sad to see the contingent that won multiple trophies leave he international scene on such a disappointing note, particularly as Del Bosque, or the next manager will be persuaded to build another world beating side with the youthful talent of Koke, Thiago and co. Out with the old and in with the new seems to be the general consensus in Spain at the moment.

 

With Spain's days in the World Cup numbered, England will be hoping to not follow in the footsteps of the holders as they take on Uruguay in just under 20 minutes. A loss for Roy's boys would spell disaster as they would go into the last game with minimal to play for. I predicted that England would be able to qualify behind Italy for the knockout rounds, and the match between Uruguay and Costa Rica would fill England with belief.

 

Defensively, Uruguay are incredibly weak. Their full backs are not great defenders and are also relatively slow. As said previously, pace on the wings is essential. Sterling and Welbeck will wreak havoc down the wings, and expect goals from the wide areas. With Wayne Rooney placed in his preferred central role behind the Sturridge it will make him very to be marked which will allow Sturridge space to shoot. As so adequatley demonstrated by Maxi Pereira, the Uruguayans can be easily wound up and frustrated. This leaves an important role for Steven Gerrard who has to dictate the flow of the game from his deeper position, similar to what Andrea Pirlo did against England on Saturday night.

 

England will need to offer a better defensive performance than the game against Italy. While ITV may claim that Luis Suarez may not be 'match fit' he still needs to be stopped. A man of his calibre can cause damage regardless if he is fully fit or not. As we have seen for Liverpool over the last season he is ruthless and can punish England if underestimated. His strike partner, Edison Cavani, also needs to be stopped. With Gerrard and Henderson protecting the front four, it should help nullify the effect of Suarez, it will allow Cahill and Jagielka to mark Cavani. For the whole 90 minutes, they need to track his runs of the shoulders of the defenders as he is an excellent goal scorer and poacher. 

  

We have already had one shock this week with the Spanish having only one more game in Brazil. England, on the other hand, must win if they have any dreams of qualifying for the next round, and it's one that they certainly can win. Shrewd midfield play from Liverpool pair, Henderson and Gerrard, could leave the Uruguayans with little attacking outlet, therefore giving the front four the initiative to grab the goals that can leak from this defence. 

3-1 England.

The Dutch Destroy Tiki Taka and an England v Italy Preview

Last night was quite breathtaking. Nobody could have predicted a Dutch onslaught. I still cannot quite believe what took place before my eyes. Surely they must now be considered as serious competitors?

Credit must be given to a superb Netherlands side who rolled back to the days of Total Football, but Spain were abysmal, and that's being generous. It's amazing how easily Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique were made to look distinctively average. Gaps between the centre-halves were exploited with ease, but the problem started with the lackadaisical full backs. Quite often while playing for Barcelona, Jordi Alba enjoys to bomb down the left wing, leaving the left full back position exposed. This allowed the Dutch wing-backs Janmaat and Blind to commit and pull Ramos and Pique out of position. 

The equaliser from RVP on the stroke half time was a touch of genius. The way he leapt into the air like a salmon was utterly majestic, and the pass wasn't bad either. Children all around the globe will be attempting Robin's leap, but not many will be able to pull it off. The Spanish defence could not contain the pace of Arjen Robben or the skill of Van Persie. You could argue that they single handedly ripped Spain's tiki taka apart, it was simply sublime to watch.

Ajax's Daley Blind announced himself on the stage last night with a quality performance. Son of Danny Blind, he was exceptional in both attack and defence, and is a great prospect. If he continues his top quality performance, the top teams could come knocking at Ajax's door in order to acquire his services.

Not many people gave the Netherlands a chance, never mind 5-1 victory against the Spanish, so England will be hoping to do the same against the Italians tonight. England will get a big boost from the news that Gigi Buffon will be absent with a twisted ankle. An equally impressive Salvatore Sirigu replaces the veteran, but it will be Buffon's leadership that they will miss.

Andrea Pirlo passed England to death in the Euros and he will be the linchpin that makes Italy tick. It's pretty much impossible to prevent Pirlo from getting the ball, and man marking him in the tropical conditions of Manaus would be suicidal. Even if  they were to stop Pirlo from controlling the game, Veratti also needs attention. It is likely that Daniele De Rossi will sit just in front of the back four, with the solitary role of breaking up the English attacks, something which he has excelled at over his successful career.

Italy possess superb wingers in Alessio Cerci, Antonio Candreva and Lorenzo Insigne. Glen Johnson and Leighton Baines will need to remain focused for the 90 minutes if they want to neutralise the threat from the flanks. Based on the performances from the warm-up games, Glen Johnson does not fill me with much confidence. 

England do have the ability to hurt Italy. With relatively slow centre backs, it is imperative that Daniel Sturridge starts. His pace, along with Rooney, Welbeck and Sterling, has the potential to hurt Italy and they need to be running lines in behind the defence. Wayne Rooney's position in this starting line-up has been up for the debate. In my opinion he should start. His experience will benefit the team, and I tip him to end his goal drought in the World Cup this year. As for Ross Barkley, Roy needs to bring him on when the ageing Italian midfield begins to tire and it may give him a free run at Chiellini and Bonucci.

I said in a previous article that England should be able to beat Uruguay, and it is quite likely after seeing a shambolic performance against Costa Rica. We witnessed a scintillating Dutch performance last night, so let's hope for another superb match up in 45 minutes.

Spain v Netherlands

Barely 24 hours into the tournament and we already have our first bodacious tie. Brazil has already provided us with numerous contentious issues and most importantly, plenty of goals. Hopefully the South Africa's finalists can provide us with more of the same, minus the controversial incidents.

Tonight sees a rematch of the 2010 Final in which 14 players were booked and, astonishingly, Johnny Heitinga was the only player to be sent off. I'm quite sure you all know the outcome of that night, but the Netherlands will be out for revenge. With Robin Van Persie leading the attack, let's take a look at where the main threat will come from in this talented Dutch side.

No one can argue that Manchester United's Robin Van Persie will have an impact on Dutch progress in the tournament. He is definitely in with a shout of receiving the Golden Boot. He has the ability to score goals out of nothing, and is a real asset to the Dutch. Another player that cannot go without mention is Arjen Robben. He is arguably the most predictable player in world football, yet the most difficult to stop, particularly if he is deployed on the left. The main attacking threat will come from Van Persie, Robben and Galatasaray's Wesley Sneijder.

The midfield will be need to be a lot more disciplined than 2010, if they want to shut down Xavi, Iniesta and Silva. As we all know, they aim to control the play and the tempo of the game. If they close the Spanish playmakers down and give them limited time on the ball, then the game is there for Holland to grab it by the scruff of the neck.

Albeit they were in a difficult group, The Netherlands will be hoping to make amends to a disastrous Euro 2012 campaign. It is often the case that the Netherlands have world class talent at their disposal however disruption in team harmony has led to them crashing out early in competitions. With fresh blood coming through in Memphis Depay, Bruno Martins Indi and Jordy Clasie. This could be their time to shine and show case their talent to the rest of the world.

Holders, Spain will be right up there in the latter stages of the tournament. Most of the players from the Euros in 2012 are at this tournament, but the most notable inclusion is that of Diego Costa. In 2012 it was common for them to play Cesc Fabregas as a false nine, which caught the opposition off guard. With Costa's inclusion, it will be interesting to see whether they deploy this tactic once again, or go with an out-and-out striker. In my opinion, this will be more of a help than a hindrance as it will give them a Plan B, something which may benefit them in the later rounds. 

This Spanish team have the ability to score goals, but they have also the ability to concede. When Jordi Alba bombs down the left, it may leave gaps at the back, and particularly in the tropical climate, he may struggle to get back. They may have defensive worries, but they do play very attractive football, as highlighted in previous tournaments. We all hope for more of the same in this tournament.

As for my prediction, a 1-1 draw is looking a good shout, as neither team will want to lose their opening game. It will be a cagey affair as a loss would be a colossal blow to their hopes of qualifying in pole position.

90% of people will be sitting throughout the Mexico v Cameroon match with much excitement. The other 10%, are lying. 8pm is the kick off time, so be there or be square.

Winter Round-Up 2013

Winter Round-Up

Here is a round-up of the Italian, German and Spanish Leagues to date.

La Liga

It is probably not too surprising that Barcelona are leading the way in Spain with 46 points, but I don't think too many people predicted Atletico to be in second place. Although having not found first gear this season, Barca have picked up on where they left off last season, albeit only ahead on goal difference. As for the Madrid sides, the tide could be turning. Real find themselves 5 points adrift of the top 2 and are positioned in 3rd place while Atleti are level on points with Barca. 

In El Clasico this year, Barcelona took the spoils with a 2-1 victory over Madrid at the Nou Camp. Neymar offered a scintillating performance in the first battle between him and the other debutant, Gareth Bale by scoring the opening goal. Alexis Sanchez doubled their lead after a deft chip over Lopez before Jese grabbed a late consolation goal to half the deficit.

In terms of my prediction, Real Madrid have the talent to win the title this year, but in order to it, they will need to gel together. Barcelona have defensive worries, after conceding 2 against Getafe at the weekend, but as always, their attacking threat bailed them out. They will look to improve in that department over January. As for the other side of Madrid, they possess a lethal striker in Diego Costa. Already with 23 goals this season, Costa will be hoping to bag a few more in order to challenge the big guns in the Champions League and try to pip Barcelona and Real to the title.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	17	15	1	1	49	12	37	46
2	Atlético Madrid	17	15	1	1	46	11	35	46
3	Real Madrid	17	13	2	2	49	21	28	41
4	Athletic	17	10	3	4	26	21	5	33
5	Real Sociedad	17	8	5	4	33	23	10	29

Serie A

Last year's champions Juventus head into the Winter Break in pole position with leading the undefeated Roma by 5 points. Roma began the campaign in terrific fashion by winning their first 10 games and only conceding 1 goal in the process, but drawing too many games has cost them their top spot. 3rd place and lying a further 5 points behind is Napoli. Unlike Tottenham, Benitez and Napoli have spent wisely and are ready to pounce on any rare occasions when the top 2 drop points. As for the Milan teams, Inter find themselves poised in 5th position while the return of Kaka has done nothing to aid AC Milan's title prospects as they have had a torrid time and find themselves languishing in 13th - only 5 points of the relegation zone.

On Sunday, Inter beat AC in the Milan derby at a somewhat flat atmosphere in Northern Italy. Rodrigo Palacio neatly flicked the ball past Abbiati late on in order to send the Rossoneri home empty handed. The first week back treats us to a top of the table clash between Juventus and Roma, and a victory for Juve would give the an 8 point buffer zone. Juventus are the favourites to complete the job that they have started, but Roma could give them a bit of bother and make it tougher than they expected, however I do expect them to prevail.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	17	15	1	1	39	11	28	46
2	Roma	17	12	5	0	35	7	28	41
3	Napoli	17	11	3	3	36	20	16	36
4	Fiorentina	17	10	3	4	33	20	13	33
5	Inter Milan	17	8	7	2	37	21	16	31

Bundesliga

As expected, Bayern top the Bundesliga table by a mile, with Leverkusen in 2nd and Monchengladbach in 3rd. Bayern Munich and AS Roma are the only sides out of Europe's top leagues to be unbeaten up until now. Having only dropped 4 points from 16 games, and with a game in hand, Bayern are expected to dominate the league with having it wrapped up long before the conclusion of the season. Last year's Champions League and Bundesliga runner-up Borussia Dortmund, find themselves in 4 position, 12 points off the leader. 

Dortmund versus Bayern was played on 23 November with Munich running out 3-0 winners. The West German side held the Bavarians out until the 66th minute when Mario Gotze scored against his old team. Arjen Robben executed a majestic lob over Weidenfeller in the 85th minute before Thomas Muller completed the rout. In a league that appears to be wrapped up already, Dortmund, Leverkusen and Monchengladbach will be hoping to hold off the victory for Bayern as long as possible.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich	16	14	2	0	42	8	34	44
2	Bayer	17	12	1	4	32	16	16	37
3	Mönchengladbach	17	10	3	4	35	19	16	33
4	Dortmund	17	10	2	5	38	20	18	32
5	Wolfsburg	17	9	3	5	28	19	9	30

My prediction:

La Liga 

1. Real Madrid

2. Barcelona

3. Atletico Madrid

Serie A

1. Juventus

2. Roma

3. Napoli

Bundesliga

1. Bayern Munich

2. Borussia Monchengladbach

3. Borussia Dortmund