Friday 22 April 2016

Champions League Semi Final Predictions

It was a rather pleasing three out of four correct results for the Champions League Quarter Finals, with only the Atletico v Barcelona tie letting me down. The competition has been whittled down to just 4 teams, with just another three matches remaining until they get their hands on that illustrious European title.

Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich


I would fancy Atletico Madrid if they had the away match first, particularly as how it worked so effectively against Barcelona. Pep Guardiola is in the hunt for his first European title in his last year with this Bayern side, and he will undoubtedly make this the priority. Bayern play an efficient style of play similar to Barcelona and can be lethal on the break. Robert Lewandowski has been in red hot form this year and he will need to rely on all of his goal scoring instinct if he is to penetrate a very strong defence.

Looking at Atletico Madrid, they delivered a masterclass in how to counter attack against Barcelona something which Bayern will need to be very aware of. Antoine Griezmann is lethal along with Yannick Ferreira-Carrasco. Captain, Diego Godin will undoubtedly make his presence felt, while Fernando Torres is beginning to recapture is form. A very interesting battle that could tilt the game is the one in the midfield between Koke and Gabi of Atleti and Arturo Vidal and Xabi Alonso of Bayern. If Bayern win or achieve a score draw in the first match, I would expect them to go through, particularly as Atleti would be chasing the game away from home.

With Barcelona having lost the last three league games until the 8-0 demolition of former Champions League semi finalists Deportivo, it threw the race for the division title wide open with Atleti sitting level on points with the Catalan giants. In the league, Atleti have conceded the least amount of goals (16) with Barcelona their closest competitors 13 adrift. Bayern have a comfortable 7-point buffer on Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Like their opponents, they have conceded the least amount of goals in the league (14), but are also joint top scorers with 72. With Barcelona out, many will tip Bayern Munich as favourites to lift the trophy.

Manchester City v Real Madrid


Manchester City become the first English side since Chelsea in the 2013/2014 campaign. Undoubtedly they will be underdogs, particularly with their unpredictable league campaign of late. Vincent Kompany will play a big part, whether or not he is on the pitch as he has drastically improved City when fit. With Manuel Pellegrini being replaced by Pep Guardiola in the summer, the Chilean will want to go out with a bang, having already secured the Capital One Cup title in March. Like the other semi final, if City had the away match first I would fancy them as I don't see them keeping a clean sheet away from home. Kevin De Bruyne was an excellent purchase by Pellegrini and has been one of the stand out performers contributing 15 goals and 14 assists in all competitions for City this season.

On their day, Madrid will rip any team to shreds and are very dangerous on the counter attack. Cristiano Ronaldo has notched up 47 goals in just 44 games this season as well as assisting 15 times and just another 3 goals will mean that he has scored 50 goals in a season for the 6th year in a row. It's one thing about planning to stop him but actually doing it is a completely different thing. Gael Clichy will certainly have his hands full. Toni Kroos is an expert at controlling the game from midfield and it will be interesting to see if they can dominate possession against a useful City midfield. Like David Silva, James Rodriguez and Isco Alarcon tend to roam about making it very difficult for the opposition to mark. City have their work cut out to prevent this potent attack from firing Madrid to the final. 

Manchester City's league season is virtually over with the side sitting in fourth and just looking to consolidate Champions League football for next year. Fifth place Manchester United are snapping at their heels and just sit two points behind. This poor position most likely played a part in the downfall of Manuel Pellegrini, but he would be able to salvage a bit of pride with a trip to Milan on the 28th May. As for Madrid, what was looking like a disappointing season has all of a sudden sparked into life. They looked down and out of their domestic league, 12 points behind their Catalan rivals, however the 2-1 victory over Barcelona at the Nou Camp seemed to be the catalyst and 4 matches later, find themselves just one point behind the holders.

We have two ties that are quite close to call, even though it would be easy to pick out the favourites. I do think that Real Madrid will be able overcome Manchester City, helped by the second leg in the Santiago Bernabeu in front of their own fans. Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich is one that could go anyway. Atletico will take confidence that the Bavarians play a similar style of football to Barcelona, but at the same time it will still be very difficult. If Atletico can keep a clean sheet at home then I do think they will win, however Bayern remain my favourites to progress.

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